Will the EVO sell out by summer?
 

I spoke with Fireball, he thinks by july we who are waiting will be out of luck.....

What do you guys think?

I always thought when the cars sells out....they make more.

I dont think so. Mitsubishi is charging alot more then they should right now. 35-37 thousand. Of coarse thats the first year price and it doesn't even have the Active differential that the VII had. So i think that it will still be there but next year when the price drops it will go just as fast as the car.:headbang:

I doubt it as well. They will be making these all year long. Granted they will come in small batches, but that means there will be a few coming every few months all year long...

I voted I have no idea cause.... hmmm... its the truth.

My 2 cents.

I thought it was around 29K........

They will bring more cars if demand is there for it! I seriously doubt, especially since around summer STi will be available as well, and that will take out some of the need...


Fedja

it is, if you pay 35-37k, your getting a fat dick shoved up your ass.

Why do you think that, man? Based on this cars history in Japan, I would think the opposite. When the allotted amount was sold out, there were no more Evo's available till the next model year.

What changed that you think Mitsu will suddenly be able to make Evos in large quantities?

SC

Re: Will the EVO sell out by summer?
 

Judging by the traffic I'm seeing in my district for the car and the numbers that everyone is getting, I don't think we will be out by summer but it will be close. There won't be a whole lot left to chose from.

Anyone who thinks "they'll just make some more if they run out" is smoking crack though.

Well, mainly due to the fact that RallyArt is not the one who is in charge of the Lancer Evolutions. They are coming out from the regular factory lines and if demand is there, they would match it (or loose money they could have and the worst part of that is that they would give it to the Subaru instead).

Fedja

I think the first "wave" will pretty much be pre sold, but I expect a 2nd wave to hit the US by this summer - maybe badged 2004s or something. I don't expect they will be any different then the 2003 (no ayc etc) because if MMC can sell cars in this form, why would they change?

the Us has nearly 6 times the population of Japan...and Japan is getting 4500...i know 4500 won't be enough to meet demand here...if they sell out by summer i will get get pissed but i would get over it and just wait for the next years production and have a bigger down payment{blob}

US market
 

By the end of summer the affordable performance car market will be over flowed with new cars, with so many choices we'll just have to wait and see what is worth it. The prices should level out by then. I hope every one makes the right decision.

Kind Regards,

the Evo is the only car i will replace my current car with...nothing against the other cars..i have a good performaning car and i just don't want to change it for anything but an Evo

"Well, mainly due to the fact that RallyArt is not the one who is in charge of the Lancer Evolutions. "

But Ralliart wasn't a big part of the VII either right? And when VII's sold out, they didn't make more to meet demand either.

And meeting demand requires a lot more than just upping production. And upping the production would be expensive and reap minimal reward for Mitsu if they decided to do so.

I'm sure the number of Evos slated for this country is based partially upon how many the think they could sell here....but I think it was mostly based on how many they could realistically make with the facilities they currently have.

But this is all heresay and conjecture. I have no fact to back my argument up with, just history. Just as youhave no fact to back yours, other than the knowledge of supply and demand....we'll know for sure this time next year! So cheers!

SC

this time next year we should be on a new production year{blob}

exactly....so we'll have been through one whole cycle...and will know what Mitsu is doing with the Evo stateside.

i do beleive they will bring over as many as they can build

Where do you get that? The US is getting 4500 cars.... that's a hard set number.

Where did you get that 4500 is a hard set number? I've only heard that referenced as a "projected sales" number not a limit. I think (IMHO) they will build as many as they can.

The biggest limiting factor on number of cars per year is the development process for these cars, which is lengthy and involved. I think this is fairly common knowledge right?

If that's the case, then I would logically expect to see small numbers of cars trickling in as they are built throughout the year. They aren't going to build until June, then stop building for the year are they? That wouldn't make any sense to me. :dunno:

Keep in mind I have nothing to back this up but logic and my own subjective opinion...

That and I have seen no language in any communications from Mitsubishi that indicates any intention of limiting the availability of the US EVO, below what they have the capacity to deliver. If anyone has something from :mitsu: that says something along these lines, I'd like to see it posted here. :)

I agree ScoobyBoost, you would think Mitsu would want to sell as many as possible. It's not like people are going to wait around for a new 2004 inventory. Remember, there's always the threat of losing potential customers to Subaru because of lack of inventory. With the STI and the newly redesigned WRX comming out soon, that's a real possibility. I think Mitsu's going to keep pumping them out as they feel demand calls for.

In that unveiling video they clearly stated that they want to sell as many as possible.

Rob

According to the US Census and the Japanese Census the Japanese population is 127 million and the US is 281 million. Now how does 127 divide into 281 by 6???

I have a feeling the inventory situation will be much like the 1st year for the WRX, crazy mark ups for the 1st half of production. Then stabilized and eventually Mitsubishi realizing they can sell more units than expected and increasing production. I'm more curious to know when they will hit showrooms. i'm hearing Job 1 won't start until March.

I don't understand how everyone keeps forgetting that this car has and always will be a LIMITED PRODUCTION CAR!

Evolutions throughout the world since the inception in '92 have been a limited production car. The car coming to the US will be no different. Pierre said at the launch that the number for the US will be 4500. Did everyone forget already?

This is not going to be another WRX. This is a limited production car, designed for a small market. If they sell them all, that's all there will be. Same as how it's been in the rest of the world.

You are overlooking the fact that unlike the JDM EVO's prior, this car is not built by RalliArt. This is built by MMC and also spear heads wider international distribution of the EVO name plate. With this in mind it has been designed to be produced at greater efficiency than the "build to order" EVO's previously available in Japan and as grey market imports (UK and Euro EVO's sold by mitsubishi are technically grey market cars) elsewhere.

The Evo was never MADE by Ralliart, only modified. Mitsubishi has always been the one to determine that the Evo was a limited production car. Previous Evo's were not a built to order either, they came in a couple variations and that's it.

sorry..i didn't realize the Japanese population was so large...but its a little over 2 times

thanks for the correction

if they only produce 4500ish cars and they sell out by the time the Sti rolls around they will lose alot of sales

At the current rate of delivery, it may take until late Summer before all 4500 cars make it to the US! They may all be spoken for well before that though. If you do some rough math, 4500/50 states means that there will be an average of 90 cars per state. If there are roughly 10 :mitsu: dealers per state, that means 9 cars per dealership. If there are about 20 per state then that number drops to around 5 cars per dealer. So if your 'average' dealership pre-sells/sells between 5 and 10 Evos, that's it for this years allotment :(

I've factory ordered several cars in the past and normally the factory stops production for retooling at the end of the model year (typically around July/August). You can't order any cars during this time which lasts around 3 or more months depending upon the new model year changes. Best case? :mitsu: starts production for the 2004 MY this Fall and begins shipping before the years end, Nov-Dec.

One indicator that may help guage how far :mitsu: is on their production is by keeping an eye out for the 'small spoiler' Evos. According to their marketing info (check out the evo8.zip at http://www.pipeline.com/~shvetsoff/) they expect 100% of the initial Evo shipment to be large spoiler Evos. The "first year" shipments will then be a mix of sunroof/spoiler combos. Who knows how many Evos are in the first shipment but when the small spoilers start to appear, you'll know that things are moving along.

In Japan I can walk into a dealer and order my EVO, WRX, ITR, you name it. They don't typically stock those types of cars at dealers. You order your color, etc.. Then they build it and you have it in 3-5 weeks. Again these are build to order. Have you been to a Japanese dealership? The 3 times I have been to Japan i have gone to atleast 2 dealers each time. Most dealers in Tokyo have about 5-8 cars in inventory. The biggest dealership I went to in Kansai had 20 cars. 2 of which were GT-R's. The rest were Glorias and other main line cars. Same thing with the Subaru and Mitsu dealers I have been to.

The factory that assembles the EVO 4-7 was operated by RalliArt Japan in the same way STi oversees the production of all STi models. The plants are owned by their parent companies but design and operation are done by the subsidiary.

With the US and Euro spec EVO 8's all duties fell on MMC, including design and full manufacturing.

Who really knows what they'll do. I've heard Pierre Gagnon himself say everything from 4500 all the way up to 6000. Personally, I don't think they'll sell 6000 Evo's that quick to even worry about making more for this year. The model year production will end around August and production for the '04 will start. 6000 cars is alot to sell for such a specific narrow market the Evo will grab. Keep in mind the Wrx is cheaper and easier for most people to obtain. The Evo will be more expensive and more radical (not as good a daily driver with it's harsh suspension etc.) meaning it will be selling to pure car enthusiasts..not just someone wanting a nice little turbo 4dr. car

To add to this, I don't believe the U.S. Evo has a dedicated assembly line. The same line must be reset in order to build the Euro and JDM Evos, since they have a different array of equipment. I don't believe they will reset the line very often in order to fulfill extra demand in the U.S., or their target quantities for the rest of the world will slip.

No way! Not all dealers are going to let these gems go for MSRP and which means there are going to be quite a few on the lots at dealers. Remember this isn't a vehicle that everyone wants. It's not practical to all. Although, I beg to differ. I think it's waay better than any SUV or even most 2 seaters. How could anyone not want a vehicle that is sure footed like the EVO and has the power to get around any slowgoing rig hogging the highway. Not to mention if you buy enough groceries to feed the entire block all you have to do is plop the seats down in the back and there you have it. Instant space. Dare we speak about the awesome brakes? Let's stop there we all know that your friends will be peeling their eyes off the windshield when the binders are applied with enough force to snap the pedal off. Haa!

However, that's not the case....We have people out there that would rather drive a vehicle that is more prone to roll overs and sucks gas as fast as a top fueler. So, imo that leaves more for us.{blob}

I for one think the Evo is very practical, compared to a Miata or S2000 anyway :D

and if you think the ride is too harsh, then you really shouldn't be looking at Evo (or STi, Z06 etc). It’s a performance car for crying out loud, and I bet MMC will import as many of them as they can sell, regardless of the "limited edition" nature of the previous generation Evos.

Hey guys, this is my first post, but I've been reading here and getting all the info pretty much since the site was created. The site rocks :headbang:

Anyway, I was wondering if any of you read this article last month in Motor Trend about Mitsubishi expanding North American production capacity: http://motortrend.com/features/news/112_news54/

If they did expand here, do you guys think that they would produce Evos domesically, and possibly in greater quantities? And you think they would ever use the Normal, Illinois DSM plant?

Just how many STI's do you think there will be? Its not like if you can't get an EVO, you can just walk across the street and hop in an STI. I am betting the STI will be even harder to come by.

Honestly if you really wanted an EVO this year, you should already have done the leg work. I have been talking to dealers for over 2 years now, and was able to shore up a 1st allocation car.

For all we know, Mitsubishi might be losing money on these cars, just as they did for the Galant VR-4. They might be just making minimum to race. The intent is not to actually sell the EVO, but to get traffic in dealers and name recognition. They want the people who buy the Montero and Outlander, and could probably care less exactly how many EVO's are sold past the 4500 mark.

my point was they will not have that traffic and they could lose sales across the board if they sell out


i am doing my best to wait....i will probally get one out of the next years production

The Evo 1-6 were limited production but the Evo 5 onwards, they tried to built as many as they could sell. About 5k or more a year.

The Evo7 had 10k units produced at least and is no longer a limited production car. Same goes for the Evo 8. Mitsu are in the business of selling cars and making profits. They will make as many as they can sell.
With the Evo7, the cars are no longer homologated, and this probably reduced the cost of manufacturing. The more cars that are made and sold, the more profit there is.

If orders for the Evo8 flood the system and overload the manufacturing capacity, then people will have to wait as Mitsu can only produce so many cars a month. Like the Mini, the wait might be a long while but you will still get your car.

Dont worry about it getting sold out.

The STI is going to help as well since people will cross-shop these two cars.

"my point was they will not have that traffic and they could lose sales across the board if they sell out"

Which is one reason some dealerships mark their cars above MSRP. the car will remain in their showroom for a longer period before it is purchased....and at the same time since it's in the showroom, every kid will be coming in to look at it, and could possibly end up buying a regular lancer.

SC

my last comment on this is this

they will sell as many as they can build...no one here knows how many they can build

a few words from obsolete.

It's very hard to tell what will happen. Honestly, the part where this is a limited production car means nothing. From my knowledge of marketing strategy this does two things for Mitsu. It keeps them from being targeted for being slow on shipments for the cars or not having enough. And it gives a hype to the car making it seem limited, so dealers can use it to hype price if chosen. This is one of those things you won't be able to prove unless you are sitting on the build line watching them, and have complete knowledge of what is going on. Second I think Mitsu will try and sell as many as they can dish out, they will even put pressure on the factories to ship more if thier is demand. This is the first year the car is out so thier is hype. This will build a demand funding back to Mitsu which in all would give them reason to add AYC/ACD to second year car in 2004. When your a large company, it really doesn't matter the greatness of the car as long as it brings a cash flow in. Obviously they cut down some things in the car which, lowered cost, earlier arrival, and this year's evo is basically a stepping stone for mitsubisihi to test the WATERS. To figure out what is taking them so long and their secretacy, i am not sure. Thier a japanese company, i am japanese, we are all sneaky, we got our jokers card hidden in our sleeve. Just have to wait and see.

:rolleyes: the evo 7 gsr stopped production while the rsii are still available, it is easier to produce the evo8 without the acd/ayc hence there will be a lot of them for sale for us consumption. :thumbup:

"Plop the seats down" eh....Don't think the evo does this..... it would compromise structural integrity too much...I get your point though!

First 2GTSiAWD,
Evo rear seats do not fold down. Unless the VIII has changed that.
Evolution production:
Model Start Production Total Produced
I 10/92 2 Lots of 2,500= 5,000
II 1/94 5,000
III 2/95 5,000
IV 8/96 2 Lots 6,000+3,000= 9,000
V 1/98 7,617
VI 1/99 7,981
TME 1/00 2,924
VII 1/01 2 Lots 9,991+3,487= 13,478
So 46,000 Lancer Evolutions have been produced in total not including the VIII.

For perspective this is a list of the top selling cars (no trucks) in the US for 2001. The monthly production of Honda civics is 46.6K.

Model Sales
Toyota Camry 616,054
Honda Accord 596,321
Ford Taurus 517,523
Honda Civic 487,336
Ford Focus 381,748
Chevy Cavalier 372,909
Toyota Corolla 338,534
Chevy Impala 302,953
Pontiac Grand Am 267,070
Chevy Malibu 264,841
Nissan Altima 250,804
Ford Mustang 240,988
Saturn S 232,625
Volkswagen Jetta 216,875
Buick Century 209,925
Buick LeSabre 207,250
Pontiac Grand Prix 193,776
Dodge Intrepid 178,597
Neon (Dodge) 175,395
Hyundai Elantra 170,979

We are getting all the LHD Evo VIIIs built. The second largest market for Evos is the UK and they will be getting their cars after the US.
6500 cars will be what we get I think. I think that they will sell them all. The STi is a limited production car also.
Whether that is enough to fulfill the demand I don't know. I bet it won't.

Erik

eh, I think the second largest market is Germany?:beer:

yeah i thought all other markets but the US and Germany were RHD

No many countries in europe are left hookers!{mrt}

Actually, I think that UK is the only one that like the steering wheel on the right ("right" being just the right-hand side, not the correct one :)) side. Not sure about the Iceland tough, but that about covers it.

Fedja

Turkey,Australia,New Zealand to name a few...The reason the english drive on the left hand side is because before the car they used to ride horses...when they would pass a stranger on the road they would pass on the left so that if the stranger coming the other way would suddenly attack with the notion to rob you ....you could draw your sword with your right hand leaving you in a suitable position to defend yourself......when the car was introduced they never changed the way things were done.....most of these other countries where ruled by the UK while a civilized infastructure was set up........History lesson over and recess!!...you can flame me now if you like...

I tough we are talking about the Europe here, but you jumped a bit further.

And Turkey has the same driving side as the rest of the Europe (UK excluded of curse).


Fedja

I am paying msrp with no mark-up. I think you guys in
rice-ville(Cali, Florida etc) are paying more because of demand.
"Supply and demand" is what makes our country so strong.
:usflag: :usflag: :usflag: :usflag: :usflag: :usflag: :usflag:
Citizens of some countries will never know what an EVO is.
Be thankful.:D

"Citizens of some countries will never know what an EVO is."

And if they keep production numbers fairly low here in the US, most US citizens will never know what an Evo is either! huhu

SC

LHD = RS and RSII models in
france
germany
italy
middle east
scandinavia
Russia
Rally -Many rally cars are LHD

These are not huge markets but the US LHD will be served first.

Erik

Excuse me, but europe isn't part of the UK.

;)

Charles

Not very many in germay as far as I can tell. I've only seen a few ever mentioned.

Their alloment of 400 VIIs were bought up very quickly.

Erik

I have no idea if they will sell out or not. I tend to lean towards those who think that :mitsu: will ramp up prod if we start eating the things up here. Just makes coorporate sense. But I'd also like to note that there was a lot of discussion a long time ago about the intent to make Evos for Canada. :mitsu: had intended to have an alotment of Canadian Evos from what I understood and then they couldn't get them past the Canadians' equivalent of the "5mph" bumper laws (which have, apparently, changed to 2.5 mph here). So it was felt, at that time, that we would be getting bigger numbers ...up to 12K because we'd be getting all of the production capacity of the Canadian market too. I think this is reasonable but more importantly, I learned a long time ago not to buy anything in the emotional state of "I better get it quick or it'll be GONE!!!" Not that there's anything wrong with getting one right up front (so long as you're not paying over MSRP) but I really don't think there will be a whole lot of people sitting around crying their eyes out that they didn't jump all over the evo 8 and now they just have to sit there with 30 grand in their pockets wishing they hadn't missed their only opportunity. C'mon...the 9 is going to have more features, the 8 may have a later version with acd/ayc...whatever happens, you can get an evo if you have the dough.

Personally, I'm waiting for the shootouts in the car rags. Specifically, I really want to see how the cornering compares without the ayc which made the 7 so potent in the corners. I'm going to be patient and I'm not listening to panicky talk of "they'll all be gone!" I've never gone wrong in life waiting and taking my time in buying. I recommend a chill to those who are worrying over this.

I doubt it! At the rate :mitsu: is pushing it back we probably won't see it until the sti comes out :confused:

So how could it be sold out if they happen to be released at that time :rant:

waiting lists.

WRONG

Watch the release video again. He says and I quote, "We expect to sell about 4500 Lancer Evolutions in North America in 2003."

That in no way suggests that this is a strict cap. That is the minimum they expect to sell. Also I know for a fact that at least EVO 6 and above were NOT limited in Japan. You could walk into any dealership in Japan and have an EVO made to order.

Can't agree more about the shutout thing!! :) But, the most of the lightness of the EVO 7 actually comes from the ACD, not AYC (which could be made to help, but not that much in the stock trim).

Fedja

As I said before the factory is working on increasing producition. How do you think a factory will react just doubling thier current production rate? Of course this is a limited production car due to the small factory. However i feel this is only temperory only for this year until they are able to ramp up. I also want to mention the evo has 200 more spot welds than the lancer cedia so they are not spit out like the Subaru STi. That car is limit released not production. Don't get me wrong i'm guessing they are producing as much as that factory is able.

GTR. I agree with you completely. All I am saying is there is no way they are going to make 4500 cars and stop IF they are capable of more. If they aren't then the 4500 will roll in slowly in small batches throughout the year.

I define limited production car as making fewer cars than a company is capable of producing in order to limit the availability of that car.

themothership already commented in another thread that they are going to make these EVO's all year long. If anyone knows he does...

I found it here:

https://www.evolutionm.net/forums/sh...threadid=13073